Too good to be true

I found this discussion of overwhelming evidence accidentally while searching for material on another topic and thought it looked interesting.

"The paper shows, for instance, that a police line-up where victims all agree on the identity of an attacker is actually less likely to be correct than one where there is some disagreement between witnesses. Similarly, a set of DNA samples that are all in perfect agreement could be evidence of an underlying systemic error."

The original paper is available. It's not about criminal trials specifically but includes the example of police identification line-ups. Because evidence suggests high rates of identification error in normal practice, unanimity amongst witnesses can, counterintuitively, imply a problem with the evidence. A correctly conducted and unbiased procedure would not produce that result.

The paper uses Bayesian analysis and depends on certain assumptions to be valid. It reminded me of other cases where Bayesian analysis turns up counterintuitive predictions (e.g. a Bayesian analysis where it was shown that a convicted person having a previous conviction can make them more likely to have been wrongly convicted, as prior convictions can cause police and prosecutor bias).

89-year-old woman gets (last?) wish

BBC News: Woman, 89, granted 'big biceps' stripper care home wish

"An 89-year-old woman's Christmas wish came true when she received a visit from a stripper with "a large chest and big biceps" at her care home.

Joan was given the almost "full Monty" after she placed her request on a "wishing tree" at the Suffolk home.

Managers said most residents ask for a beach trip or a nice afternoon tea but Joan got what she wanted when the "fireman" arrived and stripped off.

The Ho-ho-hose rang out and Joan said it made her feel "young again".

Joan, who did not want to give her last name, had requested an attractive man with "a large chest and big biceps".

Her somewhat unorthodox wish was granted when the stripper, dressed as a fireman, turned up at the Glastonbury Court care home in Bury St Edmunds two weeks ago and began swinging his belt around wildly before stripping down to his underpants."

Presumably the care home will be similarly accommodating with male residents' requests along similar lines...?

Science & Religion

Mother in Law is coming over for the weekend, and she is a preacher. This isn't a big issue, as she isn't a nutter, and generally has some interest in science and real social issues. She usually perfectly rational about most things outside of religion.

However, she has also been to a couple of talks about faith and science. It sounds like the Faraday Institute, as it questions how order came from chaos and it must have involved a higher power (god) in the formation of the universe/solar system, and how life may be god derived (ID in all but name). This would be perfectly fine, but she brought it up with our youngest. She claimed it came from a Cambridge scientist (appeal to authority).

Are there any sources, or counter-arguments for such things? A bit tricky, as its all a bit vague, but the chaos issue is one of the things that she brought up, and could do with help with countering.

Faraday Institute detail here:
https://www.faraday-institute.org/index.php

How Long Will the Impeachment Trial Last?

It's a forgone conclusion there'll be one, how long?

Jimi Hendrix is not to blame for psittacosis.

No, really, it wasn't all his fault. Apparently there was a rumour that feral parakeets in the UK were descended from a pair released by Jimi Hendrix in the 1960's, but a study on invasive species has found references to them as far back as the 1860's. A somewhat confused BBC News article appears to be suggesting tht Hendrix is now therefore exonerated from blame for psittacosis scares in 1929 and 1952, implying that he hadn't invented time travel by then either.

Dave

Apostrophe Apocalypse

Do apostrophes still matter?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC News A man who led the war on improper use of apostrophes now admits defeat, saying his grammar vigilante campaign has been brought to an end by a culture of carelessness. So what now? The battle is over, bad grammar has won. That was the message of retired journalist John Richards, who announced the end of his 18-year campaign to preserve the proper use of the apostrophe last month. "We have done our best but the ignorance and laziness present in modern times has won," the 96-year-old wrote. Richards founded The Apostrophe Protection Society in 2001 to defend the "much abused punctuation mark", waging war against advertisements for "ladies fashions", or the much maligned grocer's apostrophe, used to sell apple's and pear's. "When I first set it up I would get about 40 emails or letters a week from people all over the world," Richards told the BBC. "But then two years ago it started to tail off and nowadays I hardly get anything." The misuse of an apostrophe can have an outsized impact. A new holiday in Ghana - Founders' Day - incited heated debate this year over the nation's history, focused squarely on the placement of punctuation. Whether the country should honour a singular founder (Founder's Day) or a group (Founders' Day) strikes at the heart of Ghana's independence legacy, and hinges on precise use of the apostrophe...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50692797

Congress has introduced a resolution calling for the resignation and disbarment Barr

Text here