Extraterrestial intelligent life and civilizations are probably extremely rare

At least according to this analysis:

Quote:

Although I had to part ways with Drs. Drake and Sagan on the topic of intelligent alien life, I am not alone in my thinking. In a famous 1995 article by the esteemed scientist Ernst Mayr, he argues that high intelligence is probably rare for life because (1) being really smart may not be as advantageous for life as is commonly assumed, and (2) it may be unlikely and/or difficult for nature to hit upon this solution. Only one species has ever done it, and it took much longer than one might expect if intelligence was a convergent evolutionary trait. Mayr argues that "high intelligence seems to require a complex combination of rare, favorable circumstances" to have evolved, implying that it is very unlikely for alien life to do so. Given these concerns, we can see that while intelligence has its obvious benefits that most can agree on, most people gloss over the extreme costs and risks and unlikelihood of developing intelligence for an organism. And subsequently, I believe this results in people drastically overestimating the probability that life on other planets will be intelligent, particularly high intelligence capable of producing advanced technologies and advanced civilizations that can communicate across interstellar space. Next, let's explore some more reasonable estimates for the FI term in Drake's equation to see where it leads in comparison to a modern Drake equation calculation. ... I think a better estimate for FI, also suggested by Dr. Mayr, is the number of species on Earth that have developed intelligence, out of the total number of species that have ever existed on Earth. Given that there are about 3 million to 30 million different species alive today, and that 99.9% of all species that have ever existed have gone extinct, then a high estimate for FI = 1 out of 3 billion, and a low estimate for FI = 1 out of 30 billion. If we use the high estimate, just to be optimistic, and apply this new term to the more recent calculation described above using their optimistic estimates, then the number of advanced civilizations right now in the Milky Way is 0.00000326, or 3.26 advanced alien civilizations per 1 million years. This is not good news for alien hunters.

Do you think it is right or not?