mercredi 11 mai 2016

Bundle of sticks argument

Years ago I read of an argument from 19th century psychical research called the "bundle of sticks" argument. It acknowledged that claimed instances of the paranormal usually had little evidence. However, it claimed that the huge numbers of instances provided reason to give them credence collectively. Just as a single twig can be snapped easily, but a thick bundle can't, it claims that we can add together the many weak prior probabilities.

I hope the fallacy is too clear to need explaining here. We can find lots of very weak evidence for any proposition. Comfirmation is cheap,. I've never heard that term used in recent times, but the line of argument seems familiar. For instance, I've seen chemtrail believers saying that ALL those trails can't be contrails just because there are so many of them.


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